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clock Created with Sketch. 29/02/24
11:34
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Originally posted by highpriced:
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This is the absolute steal of the century. Its the sort of stock price at which you fill your boots with SWM just as Spheria Asset Management did during the Covid-19 panic. The cycle once again repeats itself and Spheria Asset Management is back buying again on the way to making another fortune off SWM shares.The feeling of being able to look into the near future (18 months time) and see the value that others have missed is made even better when you realise just how much pessimism towards SWM has reached hysterical levels. this time it’s different’ ‘tv is dying’ SELL SWM !!! This was the never-ending downbeat commentary that they sent to their clients. Like Lemmings, they followed each other off the proverbial cliff by lowering their price targets until the stage was reached that Morningstar had issued a note suggesting that the shares were likely to be worth less than 10 cents a share and the shares were a ''strong sell’’… those same SWM shares then quickly revalued to over 6 times their market price in the space of less than 12 months when the ad market bottomed and started its 2+year rebound. A six bagger in less than a year is a healthy return in anyone's book- yet here we are again with the opportunity to make multibagger returns off SWM in less than 18 months. (easily a 3+ bagger in 18 months) "The economic conditions that we operate in are still difficult," "What I am increasingly more confident about, however, is that we are, if not at the bottom, certainly very close to the bottom of the of the ad cycle." Money has always been made by buying cyclical businesses at the bottom of the cycle. An estimated 50 per cent of TV viewing is expected to be digital by 2027 up from 20 per cent currently. disallowed/business/companies/network-bosses-argue-against-tv-manufacturers-clipping-their-ticket-20240223-p5f7bb.html. This shift to digital is game changing for both margins and improvement in the share price multiple as the digital BVOD business is a fundamentally better business. Legislative changes such as the prominence legislation ensure that Free to Air 'Total TV' continues to be found and consumed by audiences in ever growing numbers. Substantial transformation rarely looks neat and tidy from the outside and yet the only way for SWM to compound its capital effectively is for this sort of process to take place. As I posted previously https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/up-or-down.5555400/page-5222?post_id=72224964 the view endorsed by Stanley Druckenmiller is that when investing in stocks you are not buying the stock of today but rather you are buying the stock as it will be in 18 months’ time. In 18 months time • the ad market recession will have finished and the ad market will have grown to all new highs (as it has after every single prior ad market recession) https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/SWM/02661331.pdf “I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett
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You can swing the bat in any direction regarding valuations for this stock, but the market ultimately decides the outcome.
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