I'm not so sure about that. There are a few things that speak in favour of a merger. For us HMX shareholders, however, it is relevant what the key points look like.
Personally, I still think that CNB is more dependent on HMX than vice versa. The collapse of the CNB SP could be an indication of this. So I am partially in line with your view.
The fact is: CNB is under time pressure - they have to deliver the scoping study by the end of Q1. HMX "only" has the cash problem, which has to be solved sometime in the middle of the year. Until then, a lot could happen on the drilling front and, of course, with the SP.
According to Dan, they had some initial difficulties with the drillings in Yandal. But then things went well. If the weather plays along, Shadow South (IOCG potential) should be drilled next week. He also hopes that the turnaround times in the labs will become more predictable again (i.e. shorter). I hardly think that we will have results from the Yandal drillings before the beginning of April. In addition to the merger discussions and the drillings, more seems to be going on.
Shadow South, on the other hand, could also provide some surprises I think (and hope!). Namely when sulphides are discovered (visible) and this would certainly have to be communicated to the market (we already had this in Ajax, for example, if I remember correctly).
It remains interesting......
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