flow testing, page-8

LonelyBear,

I noticed that too. I am not sure why they changed the value as they haven't said anything about it. It could be that they re-calculated the values using the Stairway as the primary target (since we have oil in it) and not the Pacoota (since it was dry).

It was bad form of them not to mention why they upgraded it, but I won't hate on them too much since they just about tripled the mean OIP estimate. :)

will2rob,

Nearly as good, yes, but as I've said before, these wells probably cost about $5M each to drill and complete. 100bopd is only 36,500 per year, and at a $30/bbl margin that's only about a $1M per year.

So a simple calculation:

1 well @ 500bopd = $5M costs, $5M per year earnings.
5 wells @ 100bopd = $25M costs, $5M per year earnings.

Now what if your field depletes after 5 years? The first example (500bopd/well) is still economic, the second (100bopd/well) is not looking so good.

In other news, I've been talking to a guy I work with who, unlike myself, is actually an experienced oil geologist. I asked him what a typical Cooper/Amadeus well with 14m pay @ 11% average porosity and >33mD perm would likely flow. His estimate was 150bopd, but he qualified that if there is a 2m zone at say, 15% porosity and 100mD in there, it would flow "like the clappers" - his words not mine.

There is a big difference between average porosity and maximum porosity, and it doesn't take a big zone to produce high flow rates. So let's hope that the 14m zone contains a 15% porosity zone in there somewhere.

He also confirmed my thoughts that live oil indicates that it's not a residual column, and that bright yellow to white fluorescence indicates fairly light API oil which will flow better, probably down to 10mD.

Also, if CTP's new figure of 100MMbbls for the mean is right, that could be 30MM recoverable, which would keep the field producing for a decade at least.

So in conclusion - looking pretty good. 150bopd is a good target, and if we have a permeable zone in there, 500+ would not seem out of the question.