Share
569 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 73
clock Created with Sketch. 02/03/24
12:10
Share
Originally posted by Epichemist:
↑
Hi Reggie, I'm all in on Neuren too but just wondering how you're getting to $2 EPS so quickly? As Neuren runs on the calendar year for its reporting I've got next year as likely a bit of a drop since last year had USD140 million in milestones and this year will likely only have the USD50 million (not actually paid until Q1 of 2025). Royalties will obviously go up but they're still the minor component. There is the possibility of the PRV sale happening but that would still have milestones less than 2023. R and D spending is hard to tell as it depends so much on the decision regarding how to progress 2591. Assuming they don't fund anything themselves then they could decline but they're not crazy high anyway so only so far they could reduce. 2025 gets interesting as it would depend a lot on whether they hit one or two of the future milestones. The $50 million for $500 million sales seems likely but the $750 million is a bigger stretch. A big unknown is obviously if they do some kind of licence out of 2591 but very hard to know as yet. Interested in your thinking when you get time, cheers!
Expand
USD750 million is 2000 patients about a quarter of the US Retts population. 50% penetration and then 50% retention. Seems pretty achievable to me.
(20min delay)