AGY (ASX) General Discussion AGY

Originally posted by Rob826: ↑

I'm keen to hear how you arrived at $5 mate. That's at least a $7b market cap, if not more through further dilution. In three years time, AGY won't even have the 10 ktpa expansion up and running.

The current spot price is around USD$14.5k/t, but let's be generous and work off a long term average sales price of US$25k per tonne. But then we need to factor in a discount for a long-term offtake. Again let's be conservative and roll with a 10% discount. As we know, nothing is perfect, so let's assume production at 90% of nameplate and keep things simple by assuming everything is battery grade.

2 ktpa Operation
US$25k x 0.9 (long-term contract discount) = US$22.5 gross revenue per tonne
US$22.5 - US$6.5 (minimum OPEX per tonne) = US$16k per tonne after OPEX
US$16k per tonne x 0.6 (~40% for taxes and royalties) = US$9.6k net profit per tonne
2000 tpa x 0.9 (90% nameplate) = 1800 tpa gross production
1800 tpa x 0.775 (AGY JV share) = 1395 tpa AGY share of production
1395 tpa x US$9.6k = US$13.392m or A$20.519m annual profit.
A$20.519m annual profit - ~A$1.5m annual costs for AGY admin/salaries/Tonopah = ~A$19m net profit per year
A$19m x 12 (assumed P/E ratio based on comparable peers) = $228m MC
$228m (MC) / 1.4b (SOI) = 16.28 cents share price

12 ktpa Operation
US$25k x 0.9 (long-term contract discount) = US$22.5 gross revenue per tonne
US$22.5 - US$6.5 (minimum OPEX per tonne) = US$16k per tonne
US$16k per tonne x 0.6 (~40% for taxes and royalties) = US$9.6k net profit per tonne
12000 tpa x 0.9 (90% nameplate) = 10800 tpa gross production
10800 tpa x 0.9 (AGY JV share) = 9720 tpa AGY share of production
9720 tpa x US$9.6k = US$93.312m or A$142.977m annual profit.
A$142.977m annual profit - ~A$1.5m annual costs for AGY admin/salaries/Tonopah = ~A$141.5m net profit per year
A$141.5m x 12 (assumed P/E ratio based on comparable peers) = $1.698b MC
$1.698b / 1.4b (SOI) = $1.21 share priceThese numbers are IMO only, but I think some of my estimates err on the optimistic side. I don't actually think AGY will consistently produce at 90% nameplate, nor do I think they will achieve 100% battery grade. I also don't think they'll remain at 1.4b SOI, as I think we'll be diluted along the way (either to fix the 2 ktpa plant or to form part of the funding for the 10 ktpa expansion). Additionally, we need to factor in the payback period, whether that is debt or pre-paid offtake which amounts to foregone revenue. Importantly, the 10 ktpa expansion won't even be built by early 2027, so I really struggle to see how anyone could arrive at such an optimistic share price of $5 in three years time.

I'm happy for my numbers to be picked apart as necessary, we're all here to learn (I hope).

Expand

Mate,

You are forgetting one thing that AGY is trading on ASX. Traders are crazy for a quality mine stock. That's the only reason why CXO LKE went from 1c to $2.50 in first lithium bull run. SYA from 0.007 to 40c.

The advantage with AGY is the first mover advantage
SP may hit $1 to $1.5 very soon imo based on the fundamentals and hype. Did u see the small Increase in lithium prices and people went crazy for AGY as they missed this monster in first bull run. AGY touched 17 and settled at 16 ( 23% up ) on Friday. Better than. Other lithium stocks. This time AGY will go higher soon imo

No.	Vol.	Price($)
9	459867	8.5¢

No.

Vol.

Price($)

459867

8.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.7¢	93664	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

8.7¢

93664

No.	Vol.	Price($)
9	459867	0.085
3	99873	0.084
4	169062	0.083
3	336585	0.082
2	114691	0.081

No.

Vol.

Price($)

459867

0.085

99873

0.084

169062

0.083

336585

0.082

114691

0.081

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.087	93664	1
0.088	232558	1
0.089	69615	2
0.090	91167	2
0.091	52101	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.087

93664

0.088

232558

0.089

69615

0.090

91167

0.091

52101

(20min delay)
Last 8.5¢		Change -0.008(8.60%)		Mkt cap ! $123.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
9.0¢	9.3¢	8.5¢	$362.9K	4.093M

General Discussion AGY, page-21373

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