In the 2022 election there were 93,968 valid votes cast and at last night’s close 80,793 being 74.2% of the implied 108,000 enrolments.
If the by-election pattern to date were pro-rata’d to a total of 93,968 we would see the following:
2022 Election
2024 By-Election
Change on 2022
Count
%
Count
Pro-Rata
%
Change
as a %
Liberal
25,493
27.13%
31,702
36,871
39.24%
11,378
45%
Labor
39,792
42.35%
33,082
38,477
40.95%
(1,315)
(3%)
Greens
15,278
16.26%
5,156
5,997
6.38%
(9,281)
(61%)
Others
13,405
14.27%
10,853
12,623
13.43%
(782)
(6%)
93,968
100.00%
80,793
93,968
100.00%
0
Reviewing these numbers we see the Greens would appear to have significantly swung behind the Liberals.
The final count, and the subsequent distribution of preferences are keenly awaited.
