In the 2022 election there were 93,968 valid votes cast and at last night’s close 80,793 being 74.2% of the implied 108,000 enrolments.
If the by-election pattern to date were pro-rata’d to a total of 93,968 we would see the following:
| 2022 Election |
| 2024 By-Election |
| Change on 2022 |
| Count | % |
| Count | Pro-Rata | % |
| Change | as a % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Liberal | 25,493 | 27.13% |
| 31,702 | 36,871 | 39.24% |
| 11,378 | 45% |
Labor | 39,792 | 42.35% |
| 33,082 | 38,477 | 40.95% |
| (1,315) | (3%) |
Greens | 15,278 | 16.26% |
| 5,156 | 5,997 | 6.38% |
| (9,281) | (61%) |
Others | 13,405 | 14.27% |
| 10,853 | 12,623 | 13.43% |
| (782) | (6%) |
| 93,968 | 100.00% |
| 80,793 | 93,968 | 100.00% |
| 0 |
|
Reviewing these numbers we see the Greens would appear to have significantly swung behind the Liberals.
The final count, and the subsequent distribution of preferences are keenly awaited.