overvalued, page-34

Some of my thoughts about the valuation of this stock at the moment:

First the (few) negative ones:

I have read, that the strong closing in Germany would be an indicator for Mondays share price opening higher.
Well i dont think that is the case ! Germany closed at 0.69 Euro or 0.98 AUD, but there where 80.000 shares traded totally meaning the value of these trades was some ~ 78.000 AUD, which is ridicoulously low compared to what we have seen in Sydney.

Then to the report, it has already been mentioned the valuation there is based on 87 Mio shares outstanding. We all know (or should know) that fully diluted there are 122 Mio shares outstanding, so based on RB Milestones model the realistic target price should have been 2.15 AUD.

But, it also has been mentioned that the discount rate is rather high with 14.4 % for the first 10 years (11.4% for the next 20 yearsrespectively) and this report gives no value at all to MHMs silica project, no value for any of the other exploration licenses and it only factors 2 possible US plants in.

Now IMO the stock exchange has a lot to do with imagination, so this is about seeing the future potential of MHM.
People are thinking about what this stock could/would be worth if we are not only considering two additional plants but maybe many more ? How many plants does Alcoa have worldwide ??
How much aluminium is produced worldwide ?
And if all these producers today use a process which 1. costs money 2. is hazardous for the environment and 3. has an overall negative ?green footprint? wouldnt you think, that they love the idea to make 1. a profit instead with 2. huge benefits for the environment.

Who would have thought that Google or Nokia would be highflyers when they started their business ? And dont get me wrong here, i am not suggesting we are in the same league, but if the ALNAK technology has a good chance to be applied worldwide - and a deal with ALCOA will defintaley put this story on a lot radar screens globally, which are probably unaware of the potential right now - my imagination tells me we still have a long way to go before this stock reaches fair value.

It is also worth mentioning that we traded an alltime record 6.6 Mio shares on Friday. This is about 7.5 % of the outstanding shares. All these buyers where willingly paying huge premiums to the previous close. I dont think that this was all from retail investors. My guess is we saw some smart money stepping in.

But Monday will tell...

GLTA

Wantedman