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1.4¢ australian vanadium limited

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sabine

18,113 Posts.

3754

05/03/24

16:21

Post #: 72755224
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Originally posted by sabine ↑

Sunday maths comp?

We’re currently priced like a company that’s about to go broke - Market Cap $117m:

View attachment 5989645

Bear in mind there was actually $24.6m in the kitty on December 31 according to the last quarterly [ref]with the previous quarter’s spend being $5,123,000 so there’s maybe around $20m still left in the pot.

AND RCF in less than a year put in
22/03/2023 :$8,059,039.34 (for 233,431,656 shares ie 5.35%) at a price of about 3.5c each [DOYOUR OWN MATHS ref]

21/04/2023 : Up yo 6.37% ( ie $1,623,701.35 spend on 44,146,510 shares [ ref]) so ~3.7c each ?

05/05/2023 : 48,990,151 shares for $1,828,147.51 [ref] … about 3.7c each?

- I think that works out at a total spend of $10,151,100.40 for 286,838,317 shares (3.54c each??)

Then on o2/10/2023 RCF shares jumped to 920,048,826 .. 18.52% [ref] being the addition of four more buys of
$15m for 576,923,077 at 3.6c each (02/10/23)
Plus three extra buys last May comprising 16,577,432 shares worth $675,709.42
View attachment 5989642

I add up it’s dedicated AVL spend to date as being $25,826,809.80

Plus the $16,250,000 spent at TMT since October 2021;
05/10/2021[ref] at 37.5c a share for 24,540,984 shares it announced it had become became a 13.16% cornerstone investor
- on 26/11/2021 [ref] another 11,459,016 placement shares at 37.5c a share took it to 17.69% with a 2021 spend of $13.5m which kept that company going until 2023.
in 2023 RCF noted on 03/06/23 [ref]there had been an on market buy of 9,821,428 shares for $2,749,999. (28c a share) . NB that was the amount to which it committed in this placement notice .

So at the time of the merger it had spent $16,250,000 over at TMT for 45,821,428 shares (18.19%)
- converted on 05/02/2024 into 14 AVL shares for each one into what I estimate as 641,499,992 new AVL shares (at a ‘translated’ cost of 3.94c each?)

…By my links and maths (above in the spoiler) the RCF financial contribution to this company after merge has been $42,076,809.90 on about 1,561,548,818 shares at an average of 2.7c each.

Anyway you can see the RCF contribution is fairly significant - its spend plus - say $19m - left in cash equates to
$61m.….
Plus add in the rest of the $49m grant that’s still pending ($39m?) and I reckon just on those three factors* AVL is cheaper than chips right now.

And I’d very much welcome someone checking those numbers and assumptions please.

cheers

*- I assume RCF wants its’ money back plus gains that equal more than interest,

Expand

My maths may have been (not unusually!) in error on working out the RCF holding in the above post.

I had it at holding 1,561,548,818 - about 1.5 billion shares after the merger, but a mate today sent me a photo of current top 20, with movements since September, from his broker screen and RCF is showing ownership of closer to 900 million shares:

FWIW;

cheers

Last edited by sabine: 05/03/24

AVL Price at posting: 1.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 1.4¢		Change -0.001(6.67%)		Mkt cap ! $120.5M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.4¢	1.5¢	1.4¢	$30.07K	2.105M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
36	8484350	1.4¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.5¢	8367467	21

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
36	8484350	0.014
21	6024364	0.013
18	4933118	0.012
16	5005822	0.011
24	6564688	0.010

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.015	8367467	21
0.016	16656009	31
0.017	11027673	28
0.018	8948958	19
0.019	3384401	15

Last trade - 12.29pm 25/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

AVL (ASX) Chart

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