Ann: 2023 Full Year Results Investor Presentation, page-55

The pro-forma 1.67 x only models capital return through the payment of the dividend and a full implementation of the current buyback - makes no mention of any factors that will increase the PCA ratio;

1. Reducing PML due to cancelled policies and lower new business
2. Higher retained earnings
~ $60 M per half in investment yield, plus a positive contribution from unrealised gains on the investment portfolio as the interest rate cycle moves to cutting. Lower reinsurance expense.
Continued historically benign claims environment keeping claims costs down, maybe HLI actually has a net claim expense this half but it won't be the 30% they guided, unemployment still starts with a 4 and HPA means that severity continues to fall.
The windback of the re-delinquency reserve (currently ~ $150 M) as it becomes clear there is no basis in experience for it to be that large.

So yes W the capital isn't going anywhere, I've still got them committed to getting back to target by end of CY2024, did I miss an announcement?