Good News & Bad News, page-40317

No worries, pal - so you're after a worst case scenario calculation. Fair enough, please see below.

	Carb/ Hydroxide Price	$15,000
1	Spod Price	$1,200
2	US Exchange	$0.68
3
4	SPODUMENE
5	Sales (1,000,000t)	$1,200,000,000
6	Cost ($500)	-$500,000,000
7	Profit	$700,000,000
8
9	HYDROXIDE
10	Sales (43,000t x 30%)	$193,500,000
11	Cost ($5,000)	-$64,500,000
12	Profit	$129,000,000
13
14	Total Profit	$829,000,000
15
16	AUD	$1,219,117,647.06
17
18	Less: Tax	-$365,735,294.12
19
20	NPAT	$853,382,352.94
21
22	PAYOUT (50%)	$426,691,176.47
23	DIV PER SHARE	$0.142
24	SHARE PRICE - 4% YIELD	$3.56

Still getting a valuation of $3.56 based off this worst case scenario, using your parameters. Do you still want to keep yapping about about a sub $2 share price, or are you still wanting to continue embarrassing yourself?

In the sake of fairness, because I have now given a valuation based off a worst case scenario of $1,200 USD of spod, and the more likely medium term scenario of $1,500 USD of spod, I thought I would also show you what $2,000 USD of spod looks like.

	Carb/ Hydroxide Price	$30,000
1	Spod Price	$2,000
2	US Exchange	$0.68
3
4	SPODUMENE
5	Sales (1,000,000t)	$2,000,000,000
6	Cost ($500)	-$500,000,000
7	Profit	$1,500,000,000
8
9	HYDROXIDE
10	Sales (43,000t x 30%)	$387,000,000
11	Cost ($5,000)	-$64,500,000
12	Profit	$322,500,000
13
14	Total Profit	$1,822,500,000
15
16	AUD	$2,680,147,058.82
17
18	Less: Tax	-$804,044,117.65
19
20	NPAT	$1,876,102,941.18
21
22	PAYOUT (50%)	$938,051,470.59
23	DIV PER SHARE	$0.313
24	SHARE PRICE - 4% YIELD	$7.82