TAKEOVER CONCERNS, page-6

I put a little thought into takeover prices the other day. Bear in mind I'm an amateur, but here it is:

1. Comparable takeover prices

Here's a table of some comparable takeover prices, including the ratio of revenue (prior to takeover) to takeover price.

	year	takeover	by	revenue (bill)	acquisition price (bill)	rev to price
1	2021	activision blizzard	microsoft	8.8	86.2	10%
2	2022	vmware	broadcom	12.9	61	21%
3	2020	IHS Markit	S&P	4.3	44	10%
4	2022	Xilinx	AMD	3.2	49	7%

2. Potential revenue for 4DS' tech

So the only thing I could think to compare 4DS to to understand the potential addressable market was DRAM. The global addressable DRAM market was $97 billion in 2022 and projected to reach $126 billion in 2031.

So, just to make the maths easier, and because these are the only numbers I have to go on, let's assume:

• Addressable market = $100 billion (based on DRAM)
• Revenue to Takeover Price ratio = 10% (based on table above)

This gives us the following takeover prices based on % of DRAM's market - or, if you like, a % risk reduction:

	DRAM market	Acqu. Price ($bil)	price per share
1	100%	1000	612.37
2	50%	500	306.18
3	20%	200	122.47
4	10%	100	61.24
5	5%	50	30.62

As you can see, if we priced a takeover on the assumption it would achieve revenue of just 5% of DRAM's current market, a reasonable takeover price would be $50 billion, or ~$31 per share (USD).

So - if it does what they say it does, it's worth a lot. Every time I look at these numbers I think I must be wrong - so please - pick them apart!