Good News & Bad News, page-40327

@Don93 So your share price valuation is based purely on a 4% yield. Where did you pull that figure from? I can get 5% risk-free on a term deposit. For a risk asset like a mining company, you want a premium to that. That's why mining companies like BHP, RIO and FMG have a much higher yield than your 4%. So if I want a yield of 8%, which is reasonable given share market returns historically average 8%, you can halve your valuations. Also, your payout ratio is 50%. PLS have said the payout ratio is 20-30%. So your calculations are even more dubious.

$1.2k spod and $15k hydroxide isn't a "worst case" scenario. Both those prices are well above the current price. If anything, those prices are probably optimistic based on where prices are currently at.

My base case is based on those figures. And going by your table, that only produces AUD$850m NPAT. So at $13b market cap it's trading on a PE of ~15 and a piss-ant yield of 2%. That's expensive for a mining stock. Run those numbers against peers such as BHP, RIO and FMG and you'll see what I mean. Comparing them to a basket of resource stocks around the world, which someone did a few weeks ago, is a mug's game. That included stocks that are pre-profit, had writedowns, and so on, which obviously inflates the average PE.