WR1 General Discussion, page-26820

Noting that these assumptions were made against a 2.5Mtpa processing plant, and I believe a 2Mtpa plant is more realistic (on par with Arcadium's James Bay), we could realistically reduce that figure by 20%:

A$1.612b x 0.8 = $1,2896b

Of course dilution needs to be factored in, as we would need to raise approximately US$300m (A$454m) for CAPEX. Assuming the next two MRE upgrades, PEA and PFS get us back up near our ATH ($2.52) by the end of the year, I would apply a roughly 20% discount for a CAPEX raise (strategic investment) at around $2:

A$454m / $2 = 227m additional shares

191m (current SOI) + 227m (additional shares) = 418m SOI after raising capital for CAPEX. I think it would be prudent to factor in a couple of small cap raises between now and CAPEX funding, so I'd probably just round this up to 450m SOI by the time CAPEX is sorted.

A$1.2896b assumed MC (based on calcs above) / 450m (assumed SOI) = $2.86 per share

$2.86 in the next 18-24 months seems pretty realistic to me, depending on how the broader lithium market goes in the short term. Obviously there could be significant upside from there though, because these calcs are based on @dtab's pretty conservative earnings estimates. If WR1 can achieve/maintain a respectable OPEX rate and spod pricing moves closer to US$2k per tonne, you could pretty much double my SP estimate in the longer term.