Yes I have gotten a response from the company regarding many questions... NMP is stated as in its very advanced stage of development and an ANN will tell the market in more detail in the near future.
SPL does not seem to be anywhere near the stage of the Alu extraction for $2000 pt, NMP process. So personally I will not give any value for SPL process as yet.
On Aussie Operations the below is what I give them...
1) Basic PROFIT from Plant 1 8.6 Mil to start in Nov 2010. Conservative approx $1 SP.
2) Consevative NMP 50Mil- as risk of non completion due to other Opportunities OS or failure to complete give 5M from 50. 90% discount. SP + 60c
3) SPL tech= 0c
3) Silica Assets and exploration- give a conservative 10 mil all up if sold all these assets now = 10c
On OS operations plants are stated to commence Q1 2011. With a major partner (Alcoa) I feel the plants could be completed or converted existing plants very quickly. As figures state the US alone has x40 upside compared to Aussie.
As this will take sometime and 2011 will be very busy once an ANN made regarding the plans for OS expansion. Depending on the plans and the deal struck plus length of time for additional cash flow on top of Aussie Operations. I forsee a rerating of an extra $1 to $4 dependant on the deal and the ambitious nature of the expansion.
As there is a chance of no deal we must give a heavy discount at this time. 50c is a good risk reward price.
Conservatively we should see ourselves at $2.20 before any OS deal ANN is made. Over the next few weeks.
Downside will be if any problems or delays in Plant 1- very unlikely now with Director buying and we days away from completion.
Further downside is no deal is made. Yet the top Alcoa executives are here to do a deal. Not look at the Melbourne nightlife.
Cheers Jay
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