Half Yearly….page 23. 2024
Feb 1st …..page 1. 2024
Quarterly 31st Jan 2024. Pages 3 and 5
So, you are knocking my concerns based on these "FACTS"There are no facts there, just possibilities, unknowns and options. Is this what has you so convinced that funding is under control and no CR is coming down the line? I put palm to forehead and sigh...
If I was a Kindy teacher, I wouldn't let toddlers run around the playground with sharp scissors because they're likely to hurt themselves. In the same vein, I don;t like seeing newbies running around investing with blunt ideas. There is no firm guidance on the final capex or funding model that I've read. A few different possibilities including cornerstone investors at a SP premium, a Chinese deal at premium if LIN wanted to play it that way, asset sell-down, 100% debt if some government supported body was crazy enough, pre-payment credit (on low margins at current prices is just can kicking unfortunately) or a huge diluting CR. FACTS... assumptions is all you have, and assumptions are the mother of all f-ups as the saying goes.
Maybe you do 'know' exactly what the capex and funding package is going to be, but just can't say on HC? I very much doubt it, but I'm certain this close to the FS release that capex is locked down, as is all the working capital, sustaining capital (the capex they can put off from development) and many do know. I'm almost certain that the mix of funding is also agreed, because they want to get development started soon as possible those negotiations would have been ongoing for ages. I don;t know what is going on, I'm just speculating with opinion like everyone else except you...
LIN keeps sinking despite a good project being well presented, and a large CR is the obvious explanation imho. You certainly have set yourself up for the mother of all embarrassments if a large CR is part of the funding mix... the rest of us are rightly more circumspect.
GLTAH
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