in principle(except I have never touched or looked at crypto), I would however make one small correction in a statement that you made, but only for clarification purposes.
You first said "
The market has priced imu at 850mil give or take a little.."and then said "
the market sees 10 to 12c fair value."
The second statement should also be regarding price, not value. The market only prices stocks, it does not value them. The market has priced IMU at 10-12c. I don't have any issue with that, but it is definitely not the correct value. The value is what the company is actually worth, not what the stock market prices it at.
If 10-12c was fair
value, then no-one should complain if a 12c takeover for the lot comes in. But that's not the case, because any take over now will be significantly higher than 12c, because fair
value is actually so much more than the
price. The full
value will be realised in time, either by a takeover or when the company starts to produce revenue and the
price increases (converges on) to the value.
Currently, the market sees 10-12 as fairly priced,l and that's fine. But that's where the real money is made. When there is such a huge gap between the price and the value of an asset, then that presents an arbitrage opportunity. The best of them are few and far between, and in my opinion, Imugene, regardless of how the market
prices it, is the best arbitrage opportunity I've had the chance to be part of, and I don't expect to see anything like it again. People keep bringing up Buffet in these discussions, but for good reason. He's the master and spotting divergence between price and value and capitalising on it.
I'm extremely heavily weighted towards Imugene - and while everyone's strategy is different, I refuse to accept that my money is better off anywhere else other than Imugene. I personally would rather be all in on Imugene with the diminishing risk of failure, than diversify and get minimal profits elsewhere. This is why i scoff in derision when slick suggest that I should sell when I see technical reasons to do so. I can guarantee that when all is said and done(if a successful outcome)that if the people who have traded Imugene sat down and did the math, they'll realise they'd have done better accumulating and not trading. For example, if you are trading $100k in and out at 10c, that gets you a million shares. That's good profits at these levels, no argument. But every cent higher it gets harder and harder - by 50c Your $100k only gets you you 200k shares. Let's say the price gets to $5 because everything works out - for the trader he's now buying 20k shares with his $100k. No doubt, the trader made plenty of profits all the way to $5. But did they mak3 $4.9 mill? I'd rather miss the profits and hold the 1mill ($100k
@10c) than trade all the way to $5, have good profits along the way and hold 20k shares at the end of it.
Trading has its place, and many people do it for their living - not knocking that at all - I've been there. But it IMU runs like many here suggest it could, then those who have accumulated and held from times like now are going to be very happy with their decision imo.
Of course, if Imugene fails then the traders can have the last laugh.
(20min delay)