Good post Yaq... I'd another difference.
ESG is building its own core business irregardless of what happens on the takeover front. Domestic contracts, power stations and LNG all on the agenda.
CDU only had one string to its bow, and that was trying to pimp itself out for a takeover. Of course this didn't work because to be taken over you have to show your data room.
db76 is right to point out Taleb's concept of the black swan, I just got thumped by a pretty hefty black swan myself in CTP (oil well inexplicably failed to flow despite every indication it would) and the potential black ESG swans abound. I wouldn't invest any money in ESG I wasn't prepared to lose but it's pretty clear this company has little in common with CDU.
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