This is so painfully slow at the moment, I expected our breakout in March. Interestingly, the Nov 2019- April 2020 range very similar to the current one, led to a stellar bull run to 0.495 in a very short space of time. Long term pressure remains with the bulls, however there is currently a strong hourly bear signal butting against the prevailing trend. We may push lower again here but not expecting it to go very far. Probability for an upside breakout hasn't wavered for the entire range since November, quite an interesting technical scenario. We are sitting on the weekly e21 which always offers good strong S&R and currently working for the bulls. The daily is the chart of interest atm thought, our e100 is now very close to the e200. It's time for it to make its decision, they very rarely travel parallel to each other for very long. At today's close we are watching the possibility of bullish divergence.
Looking at the charts and picturing what a small move higher may look like on the daily, I get the very distinct feeling that any bullish indications from here, if the bears fail, will cause a pile on pretty quickly. None of the bulls wants to be the first to commit, they are standing back to see what the bears are going to do with it. Be sure that when it happens (whatever it is) it will catch everyone off guard and likely over-extend. This is a really long range and markets hate a range for long. If we don't break either way before the upcoming conference, it could be quite an event on the chart, even if it may not look like it should be. Interesting times.
A few people are expecting 0.130 to offer resistance for the bears. I don't see it - the overhead resistance is based on the monthly e21 which essentially is our upper bound and currently sitting at 0.129. If we 'break out' we will likely pass through 13 like a hot knife through butter because we've been churning through the supply it has for 3+ months now. We might bounce initially off it and then push straight through it, but it's very unlikely to be like the weeks and weeks effort at 11.5 & 12.
