It's no secret. There's no conspiracy.
Here's the list of references CSIRO used for their gencost 2023 report:
Aurecon 2023a, 2023 costs and technical parameter review, December 2023, AEMO. Aurecon 2023b, 2022 costs and technical parameter review, March 2023, AEMO. Aurecon 2022, 2021 costs and technical parameter review, March 2022, AEMO. Aurecon 2021, 2020 costs and technical parameter review, March 2021, AEMO. Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) 2023a, Input and assumptions workbook July 23, AEMO. Australian Electricity Market Operator (AEMO) 2023b, 2023 Transmission expansion options report, AEMO. Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (BREE) 2012, Australian Energy Technology Assessment, BREE, Canberra. Cavanagh, K., Ward, J. K., Behrens, S., Bhatt, A. R., E, O., & J, H. 2015, Electrical energy storage: technology overview and applications. CSIRO for AEMC. CO2CRC 2015, Australian Power Generation Technology Report, CO2CCRC, Canberra. CSIRO 2023, Renewable Energy Storage Roadmap, CSIRO. Economic and Finance Working Group (EFWG) 2018, SMR roadmap, Canadian Nuclear Association. Edmonds, J., Lucknow, P., Calvin, K., Wise, M., Dooley, J., Kyle, P., Kim, S.H., Patel, P., Clarke, L. 2013, Can radiative forcing be limited to 2.6Wm(-2) without negative emissions from bioenergy and CO2 capture and storage? Climatic Change, 118(1), 29-43 SI. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0678.2 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 2010, Australian Electricity Generation Technology Costs – Reference Case 2010. Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, Canberra. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2019, Capital Cost and Performance Characteristic Estimates for Utility Scale Electric Power Generating Technologies, EIA. Fichtner Engineering 2023, The Australian Concentrating Solar Thermal Value Proposition: Dispatchable Power Generation, Process Heat and Green Fuels, Australian Solar Thermal Research Institute. Fraunhofer ISE, 2015. Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Long-term Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale PV Systems, s.l.: Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende Gas Turbine World 2009, Gas Turbine World Handbook. Gas Turbine World 2010, Gas Turbine World Handbook. Gas Turbine World 2011, Gas Turbine World Handbook. Gas Turbine World 2012, Gas Turbine World Handbook
Gas Turbine World 2013, Gas Turbine World Handbook. GHD 2018, AEMO costs and technical parameter review: Report final Rev 4 9110715, AEMO, Australia. Government of India. 2016, A new dawn in renewable energy. India: Ministry of new and renewable energy. Graham, P. 2018, Review of alternative methods for extending LCOE calculations to include balancing costs. CSIRO, Australia. Grübler, A., Nakicenovic, N., & Victor, D. G. 1999, Dynamics of energy technologies and global change. Energy Policy, vol. 27(5), pp 247-280. GWEC. (n.d.). Global Wind Report Series 2006 to 2016. Global Wind Energy Council. Hayward, J. A., Foster, J. D., Graham, P. W., & Reedman, L. J. 2017. A Global and Local Learning Model of Transport (GALLM-T). In Syme, G., Hatton MacDonald, D., Fulton, B. and Piantadosi, J. (eds) MODSIM2017, 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2017, pp. 818824. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-7-9. Hayward, J.A. and Graham, P.W. 2017, Electricity generation technology cost projections: 20172050, CSIRO, Australia. Hayward, J. and Graham, P. 2013, A global and local endogenous experience curve model for projecting future uptake and cost of electricity generation technologies, Energy Economics, 40, 537-548. Hayward, J. and Graham, P. 2011, Developments in technology cost drivers – dynamics of technological change and market forces, CSIRO. http://hdl.handle.net/102.100.100/104795?index=1 Heard, B. 2022, SMRs: Small modular reactors in the Australian context, 2nd edition, Minerals Council of Australia International Energy Agency (IEA) 2008, World Energy Outlook. Paris, France: IEA. International Energy Agency (IEA) 2015, 2015 Projected costs of Generating Electricity . Paris, France: OECD. International Energy Agency (IEA) 2016a, CSP Projects Around the World. Retrieved from SolarPACES: http://www.solarpaces.org/csp-technology/csp-projects-around-the-world International Energy Agency (IEA) 2016b, World Energy Outlook . Paris, France: OECD. International Energy Agency (IEA) 2021, World Energy Outlook . Paris: OECD. International Energy Agency (IEA) 2022, World Energy Outlook . Paris: OECD. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) 2022, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Jacobs 2017, Report to the Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market: Emission mitigation policies and security of supply, Department of Energy and Environment, Canberra.
McDonald, A., and Schrattenholzer, L. 2001, Learning rates for energy technologies. Energy Policy, vol. 29, pp 255-261. Mott MacDonald 2023, AEMO transmission cost database, building blocks costs and risks factors update: Final report, AEMO. Neij, L. 2008, Cost development of future technologies for power generation-A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments. Energy Policy, 36(6), 22002211. Rubin, E. S., Yeh, S., Antes, M., Berkenpas, M., & Davison, J. (2007). Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, vol. 1(2), pp 188-197. Samadi, S. 2018, The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 82, pp 2346-2364 Schmidt, O., Hawkes, A., Gambhir, A., & Staffell, I. 2017, The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates. Nature Energy, vol. 2, 17110. Schoots, K., Kramer, G.J. and Zwaan, B. 2010, Technology Learning for Fuel Cells: An Assessment of Past and Potential Cost Reductions, Energy Policy, vol. 38, pp. 2887-2897 Stehly, T., and Duffy, P. 2021, 2021 Cost of Wind Energy Review, NREL, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/84774.pdf UN 2015a, Energy Statistics Yearbook 2012. New York, USA: United Nations. UN 2015b, Energy Statistics Yearbook 2013. New York, USA: United Nations. US Department of Energy (DOE) 2023, Pathways to commercial nuclear liftoff: Advanced nuclear, DOE. Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) 2023, Carbon Free Power Project Briefing, https://www.utah.gov/pmn/files/936595.pdf, UAMPS. Voormolen, J.A., Junginger, H.M. and van Sark, W.G.J.H.M., 2016. Unravelling historical cost developments of offshore wind energy in Europe, Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pp 435444. Wilson, C. 2012. Up-scaling, formative phases, and learning in the historical diffusion of energy technologies. Energy Policy, 50(0), 81-94, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.077 Wilson, S. 2021, What would be required for nuclear energy plants to be operating in Australia from the 2030s, University of Queensland. Wiser, R., Rand, J., Seel, J., Beiter, P., Baker, E., Lantz, E. and Gilman, P., 2021. Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050, Nature Energy, vol. 6, pp 555-565. Wright, T. P. 1936, Factors Affecting the Cost of Airplanes. Journal of the Aeronautical Sciences, vol. 3, pp 122-128.
Zwaan, B., Rivera Tinoco, R., Lensink, S. and Van den Oosterkamp, P. 2012, Cost reductions for offshore wind power: Exploring the balance between scaling, learning and R&D, Renewable Energy, vol. 41, pp 389-393
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