MAY 4.76% 2.2¢ melbana energy limited

Ann: Block 9 - Maiden Contingent Resources, page-176

  1. 3,718 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 1103
    seems mr mkt is indifferent to the unit 1B numbers - not surprised, also didnt like the delay in drilling (almost 2 weeks for 75m), and agree with @Smiteoff - looks like MAY is our month as I predicted many months ago.

    What mr mkt hasnt priced is this:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6062/6062803-612b4b8f3177e77a66c6e7b19aaffbe9.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6062/6062806-040e553ccefdae6af1395df44b43554a.jpg
    so, assuming 5k p/d upper sheet + 40k p/d lower sheets = 45k boE p/d = 16.4 MILLION PER YEAR.

    30% = ~5MMbbl NET TO MAY each year


    for comparison:
    KAR (MKT CAP AUD $1.7BN) PRODUCES 7MMBBL PER YEAR with only 152MMBL IN 1P+2P+3P NET RESERVES....
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6062/6062812-418e311ede2353474316244ae43810a6.jpg

    BPT (AUD $4BN MKT CAP):
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6062/6062829-760e11578a3fde3959533eaa153a11ac.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6062/6062833-99506a564c5ebd02938cf828dc38c64f.jpg

    rough valuation:
    1) BASED ON KAR: 5/7 * $1.7bn mkt cap = $1.2bn MAY MKT CAP
    2) BASED ON BPT: 5/20 * $4bn mkt cap = $1bn MAY MKT CAP
    AVG = $1.1BN MKT CAP

    and there you have it folks....the prized ~$1bn
    mkt valuation.....!

 
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