I realised the link doesn't work:
GS reason 1
CXO appears relatively expensive trading at a premium on ~1.5x NAV (peer average ~1.15x) and an implied LT spodumene price of ~US$1,330/t (peer average ~US$1,315/t), with the lowest average operating FCF/t LCE on a more moderated/deferred production restart/ramp up.
reason 2
We continue to see production risk (in a steady state operation) as the Finniss project moves through ramp up on project complexity (moving between different open pits and underground configurations), though in the current pricing environment see risk that restarting mining at the Grants pit/ processing operations is less likely near-term with the mining contract terminated and notice given on the processing contract, increasing the risk of a longer gap in production.
reason 3
Though further exploration is underway (including revisiting the gold, uranium and base metal exploration projects), and while potential resource expansion could be promising, with resource extension likely at depth/from new areas, we see limited near-term upside, where further exploration is now also likely longer dated on falling lithium prices, particularly with a near-term restart of the operation now unlikely in the near-term.
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