The volatility of lithium price is because the lithium supply chain is still not understood well by the players of this chain. It's interesting that it's still not understood from upstream to downstream, from a lithium explorer to an EV OEM manufacturer.
The lithium supply chain is a very long and complicated one. It's totally different than any other commodity.
From top to toe, from upstream to downstream, to the batteries, and to the EVs,.. there are many moving parts.
But one thing is certain, everyone needs lithium. Hydrogen fuel cell narrative is over.
The economic viability of the deposits are not understood for example. The complete Canadian lithium projects (mainly James Bay projects) have become "not economically viable" at these lithium prices, even spod concentrate at US$1,500/t for 5.5% grade, non of the James Bay projects can start development.
Yes LTR can do it of course, because it's a low cost high grade project. There is no other project like that.
The lithium projects in Zimbabwe can supply around 1mt spod or 100kt LCE. But that not enough to reach the 1,3mt LCE demand of 2024.
LCE production from lepidolite is now also in danger. The majority of projects are in halt atm because the cost is too high and they don't know what to do with the huge waste.
Therefore we are seeing the spod auctions are being sold at higher and higher prices. This is just the beginning. We are just out of the Chinese new year. The inventories of Chinese supply chains are mainly empty. They will fill them up.
Just wait and see the results.
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