Spot on, once the spin and BS cuts in its time to leave, 6 years of downtrend ahead from here.
It's not the size of the resource that counts its the portion of it that can be sold and that is entirely in the hands of China and CBMM.
The largest Nb producer with the highest grade and lowest cost of production operates on a margin of $15,500 AUD. What will WA1's margin be?
Vanadium is very similar to Niobium in the steel strengthening market, they both do the same thing with Vanadium having an advantage in processing.
When Vanadium prices are high steelmakers substitute Niobium and vice versa, they have a close relationship.
Niobium has the advantage when high temperatures are required and is more suited to the high tech arms market such as high speed rockets.
Throw in the Niobobaotite wild card that may be in production within 2 years and has the potential to totally disrupt the Niobium market and you may understand why WA1's time in the sun may be over, at least in the medium (5 years) time frame.
Definitely a time to consider alternative opportunities!
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