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261 Posts.

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29/03/24

10:01

Post #: 73115907
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Originally posted by SugeKnight: ↑

A few posters keep posting that LTR is a "high cost producer". I came across this recent note from Citi analysts which predict/forecast LTR will have FOB cash costs of US $542 /tonne by 2026.

That puts LTR on par with PLS on the cost curve (quite good and at the lower end of the cost curve) - certainly not a high cost producer. (See Pink highlight on photo above)

Initially however, when production first begins, the cost will be higher. They predict US $963 /tonne in 2025 (see blue highlight). So still profitable if all goes well, at current prices, and then will gradually improve

You can clearly see why CXO is in care & maintenance with costs of ~1500 USD/tonne

Shorts have bets on PLS simply because they're betting against lithium

LTR shorts would be the same, but in addition, the potential for things to go wrong during initial start up

Point is however, long term, LTR is looking to be a great project similar to PLS. That's why it remains a high potential M&A target imo.

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Wow US$963/t in 2025......
Thats FOB, no shipping transport, no Royalties......
Then there's the loans to repay......
Fair to say 2024 cost will be double that......
The $963 is average cost so higher till mid year......
US$542/t in 2026 .... we'll see.......

LTR Price at posting: $1.17 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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