If you read the slides from the last SSW battery day slides it shows they have another $50M USD incoming soon to execute an option on the JV. So no, i do not think there will be a cap raise any time soon... the only chance I see the need for one comes much later after the revised DFS is completed/released, if it shows capital needed to construct the plant is significantly higher that expected, however the pre approved loan amount already had a significant buffer (also while for legal reasons (which is quite funny when you read the root cause for that, the loan can only be used on the plant and even the yank senators who setup the fund didn't expect it to be for limited use only, and don't understand why the lawyers imposed the limits (which they also didn't want to disclose on public record...), anyway the JV funds can be used on both the pit construction, equipment and the plant construction/operation, and it was based on what the financials for the project dictated the company could afford, assuming $11k USD per Tonne. Dont quote me on this but with the revised DFS, if price of LCE projected long term is higher still (say $20-25K USD) that several leaders in the industry think is reasonable, it may be possible to have the loan re-assessed to see what the project can support (but thats speculation i dont know the loan pre approval terms...). Re. the inflated cost of construction - the annalists iv seen "guess" that it will be higher than the loan amount, have all used the wrong figures to get to that outcome... they use "mining equipment" inflation numbers not cost of stainless steel and civil works which would be more relevant for this plant... Traditionally mining equipment is always overinflated (due to the inefficiency in its limited and bespoke production volumes)... What Im seeing above - its the same argument that drives price up, when it was @11c AUD people saying "ill buy it when it gets to 4-8c AUD", im not sure what TA or fundamentals those were based on (comparing it to other miners that went to 4c AUD (with 14B shares outstanding in one example) without looking at market cap... for where the project was up to $0.1-0.11 already was extremely under valued (my opinion only based on own analysis, and understanding of others fears, to risks, I felt were otherwise mitigated after reading the reports in the public scoping/mines plan of operation, NFA). It the "holding out for lower prices to buy in/more" that creates FOMO once the price never gets to their entry point, so they buy in later at higher prices, driving it up. All we can do at this point is see on the weekly closes if it holds the bull market support band, last weeks close it looks like it was back testing it (0.159/0.142), it needs to break it to go back down to the $0.12-0.14 you noted (which it might but why fret over that... we have a multi year outlook not day to day or week to week). As for a gov. org. missing a deadline... that cant be a surprise, and im sure they will say "this was an estimate not a deadline" blah blah blah... but with the reduced capex i think the next Q report will show the company can sit tight for ~ 2-3Qs while the gov does its thing and the extremists do their best to delay...
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