Hi Gmail
Are they forward looking for ALB, SQM , Tianqi , Ganfeng and CATL. If not what makes PLS so different, remember we are small fry in comparison to those 5 companies.
Has the bottom of the market been reached yet? You ask. Well the shareholders in those 5 companies don't think so otherwise they would be bargain hunting. In just 12 months ALB down 42% Have a look at the chart. SQM 41%, Tianqi 40%, Ganfeng 51%. The only one, out of the 5 with any signs of life is CATL.
6 months ago you could have asked the same question. Has the market bottomed yet. You would have guessed wrong.
There may be a chance of a flattening of income, but lets look at the income PLS gets in the next quarterly. Currently it has $AUD 264m to get near.
Expansion. PLS Mar 2023 produced 148K DMT and shipped 149K DMT income $AUS 1093m. Dec 2023 Produced 179K DMT Shipped 160K DMT income $AUS 264m. Increase shipments by 50% to 240K DMT income $AUD 400m. We haven't made the P680 full expansion yet. The P1000 target is down the track. 240K DMT per quarter is a P1000 target.
The flattening of the shipped SPOD price $US in the coming report would be a good sign. Last quarter was $US 1113. But that does not mean we reached the bottom. It's like in the charts when I see the 10WMA flatten and even rise for a while, it doesn't mean that the overall trend has changed.
Look at the ALB chart below. During the last year the 10WMA (green line) flattened and rose on the first occasion but then reversed. One the second occasion it just flattened.
You seem to be total oblivious to the fact that income Mar 2023 1093m and Dec 2023 264m a 76% drop in income even though shipments went up.
With the charts I don't fight the trend until it becomes bleeding obvious that something has changed. One quarters report is just a drop in the bucket unless we see a significant rise in $AUD income in the June report.
The $US price of shipped spod PLS received in June quarter 2021 was $US 825. So a possible range of $US800-900, sometime in the future, while maybe unlikely cannot be totally ignored.
In the Dec 2022 quarter report the $US shipped Spod price was $US 5668. If I had then suggested that the price could fall below $US2000 in the future I would have be laughed out of the house. It has so far got down to $US1113
The funny thing with price bubbles is that many of them come close to returning where they started from. Prices before June 2021 were much lower than $US825. Mar 2021 $655 , Dec 2020 $415.
I'm not prepared to call a bottom and the many analysist who have been calling for one, over the last 6 months, are not putting the money where there mouth is.
Just my opinions , DYOR
cheers Lies
Remember that this is a Chinese run casino.
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