Firstly, thanks for keeping the conversation pleasant and courteous, my tone wasn't nasty to you and I'm glad you didn't get nasty in response even though it seems you disagree with me. Not that it's what you'd usually expect, but most of the people I'm not even talking to are clearly flying off the handle.
I think the next significant news is likely to be a trading halt (which is not to say that I think it's definitely the most likely possibility, just that it's likely) because it is the one with the most definite time frame (they can't possibly leave it to the last minute, it's probably going to be this quarter, it could be any time) and the others are the permit (perhaps the other most likely, which could also come at any time and I expect will be within 3-6, but unlike the CR, might not come until next year or later, if at all), and others are dependent on these two, unless you count sudden production increase, which I personally think is unlikely within the next few months, but yes, possible.
As I described, I don't think the permit would do much to boost the share price at this time; it guarantees an imminent need for external funds which will cause dilution and a price drop, and given the lack of production will probably not boost the share price anyway.
If it's to keep the lights on (which it will be if we don't see the permit quite soon), it will definitely be a CR and it will definitely be painful. If the permit comes first, which is possible, yes, it could potentially be a strategic partner, but I'm not sure if this would give shareholders a better deal since no partner in their right mind would pay for the expansion plant without being given a massive discount, given they are paying upfront, won't be getting any product for quite a while at best, and are taking on the risk of paying for something based on an unproven method (say what you like, but when you have been saying for quite some years now that you have it sorted out, but then years after building two plants neither of them works, you haven't yet demonstrated that it works). A partner may give a favourable deal for a sure thing, but not for a project like this with a proven track record of disappointment, empty promises, delays and to date no demonstration of ability to succeed. AGY is not at all in a strong position to negotiate a deal.
AGY would actually probably be better off not getting the permit until after the 2,000TPA plant is successfully producing, but we have no idea how long that will take.
They may indeed be waiting for the permit before announcing a CR, I have been considering this for months, but they're certainly leaving it dangerously late. A much more hopeful possibility is that they genuinely expect production to improve soon and they're waiting for that before doing a CR. They've constantly been telling us for a couple of years that production is very close, so it's very difficult to know what they actually think, and even if they genuinely did think so now and said it, you couldn't take them seriously. They quite possibly were genuinely hoping/expecting to have production kicking along before now, but the reality is that it still isn't, and money is running very low.
To the whingers who complain about long posts, you never, ever complain about long or repetitive bull posts so it's not actually about the length, I'm addressing a question directed at me personally and not to you, and if you genuinely thought my information was flawed you would politely explain why rather than posting inane comments and pictures of dogs and musical instruments etc. Do you come here to discuss the company or to post ridiculous nonsense? If your attention span is too short I'm sure there are plenty of Facebook groups where you can enjoy and share as much rubbish as you like, or feel free to scroll on, but if you want to politely discuss the company here that's an option.
Expand
(20min delay)