Well, there you go, looking at it all it seems you completely agree with me on all counts. Enough funds for 2-3 quarters (I personally can’t see 4, but we’re near enough on estimates). I’ve said all along that the permit may come first, and if so it will mean an imminent effort to seek external funds, which may or may not be done through a CR but either way will result in dilution with new shares issued at a discount and a resulting decrease in market share price. Hoping for anyone to pay a premium in the current situation is a pipe dream. Production at this stage would not avoid the need for external funds as there’s just not enough time to get enough product sold in time to cover all expenses, but it is the only thing which could prevent the price from dropping below where it is. We can only estimate the likelihood of that happening, but given it is years behind schedule with no actual sign of progress in over four years (the pilot plant was abandoned before it produced at a decent rate, and the company did state that they planned to use it as a production plant to provide revenue to be put towards further expansion, so it is entirely reasonable to call it a failure) and the 2KTPA plant has not produced at any better a rate than the pilot plant, with zero sign of improvement for a long time (and the best results achieved have been the same as in the abandoned pilot plant).
It really just boils down to betting on whether or not you think they can get production happening before raising external funds (which one way or another is inevitable). We have a relatively clear deadline for raising funds (some time between now and early Q3, though I can’t imagine them waiting until the end of July at the absolute latest) and a much less clear deadline on production. I’m aware of the reality that there has so far been zero improvement in production since they fairly quickly got to the same rate as the failed pilot plant a long while ago now, and also the fact that you’re not going to suddenly miss the boat with zero progress turning into nameplate production overnight. There will be some improvement in production announced before and major ramp up, giving me an opportunity to buy back in if I choose to, unlike a CR trading halt which prevents me selling until the main crash hits as soon as it reopens.
Not that it’s anything I would actually base a decision off, but across the board regardless of company or industry, every time I see many many bullish holders bragging about having all the bears on ignore and demanding they go away (obviously because they can’t stand to face what the bears are saying), it is followed by a drop in price. When people have genuine points to make, they make them. When they don’t they ignore, scream, distract, etc. When I get dog pictures, bagpipes, responses of literally “blah blah blah blah blah blah” etc, I know deep down those people are worried and insecure. The truth doesn’t try to hide, lies and denial do.
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