Why SWM is worth more than $1.50 per share, page-244

There are such massive amounts of intrinsic value on offer here at 19 cents a share it is simply astounding that only 4 major fund managers have currently started building positions in SWM.

In 18 months’ time (September 2025) when SWM has delivered multi-bagger returns, every fund manager will be looking at this stock surprised at how it managed to deliver such massive financial returns despite the current prevailing mood being one of seemingly never-ending pessimism (if you want to see the pessimism I refer to just take a look at the below Financial Review article) . https://www.copyright link/companies/media-and-marketing/up-in-the-air-seven-s-new-boss-braces-for-impact-20240404-p5fhjwIf you want a great counter-cyclical share price indicator to follow, the last time the Financial Review was this pessimistic about SWM ( during the 2020 Covid-19 ad market recession) the stock went on to deliver 10x share price gains in less than 2 years as a result of the ad market recovery. Any person with the capital to invest at these prices and ability to hold through the inevitable volatility stands to make an absolute fortune.

The outcome for the ad market at this stage is largely binary -either the Australian economy falls into a recession that we never recover from (in which case most ASX companies are in serious trouble) or like what happened during the Covid-19 panic, the Dotcom crash, the GFC and the 1990s recession – the ad market recovers and TV advertising which is ‘the first to go and the first to come back’ leads the charge.

I have already covered off why at 19 cents per share you are buying SWM equity for far, far less than the sum of its parts here (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/why-swm-is-worth-more-than-1-50-per-share.7836870/page-198?get_post=true&direction=previous

Four of the short term catalysts I haven’t spoken about yet are included below (in addition to the massive list of more important catalysts I have already outlined here (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/why-swm-is-worth-more-than-1-50-per-share.7836870/page-132?post_id=72872479

• Jeff Howard starts as CEO on April 18. Knowing about how Jeff operates this is one of the biggest near term catalysts for the SWM business. Jeff is without a doubt an absolutely brilliant leader and he now has the chance to build out his management team including his new CFO and Commercial Director appointments.

• New CFO appointment ASX announcement – I would expect this fairly soon considering that Jeff has been involved in picking his successor and he commences as CEO in less than 2 weeks.

• New Commercial Director after Bruce McWilliams retirement in less than 3 months. McWilliams was earning about $1.1m and no doubt there will be significant cost savings for SWM from a new commercial director considering the current market rate for such roles is significantly less.

• Macquarie Conference Presentation (7- 9 May 2024) https://www.macquarie.com/au/en/insights/australia-conference.html . SWM will outline trading guidance and give a presentation on future SWM initiatives. This is the first presentation by the new CEO and it provides the perfect opportunity for SWM to correct professional investor misconceptions about the company. More cost cuts are likely to be announced however there are also a bunch of positive catalysts that the professional investment community isn't currently aware of or paying much attention to.