Superficially, with the 2.05 billion SOI as reported for end June 2023, and should the SPP produce another $1.6m on top of the Placement at $5.6m, then the additional $7m in the kitty results in 280m new shares. That's a dilution of about 13%. Should progress occur as I expect it will, steadily building revenue with an SP slowly catching up and then accelerating ahead, that dilution will trouble but few of us.
Likewise, the 140m Attaching Options (assuming the $7m receipts), will bring in $4.9m, and the Bonus Options another $7m. Hence JandB85's approx $20m. The exercise of these options will occur only if the SP is at least 3.5 and 5 cents respectively (their exercise prices).
Theoretically, based on the MC of approx $75m as of last week, the diluted value per share on settlement next Friday, would be:
($75m + $7m)/(2050m+280m) = 3.5 cents
These figures are based on assumptions I have made above, exclude the effects of the exercise of current options (employee and ADOOPT5 options from the previous CR, whose exercise price is 6.4 cents), and are a little approximate. But please correct or improve these figures.
I have two conclusions:
1. The company is steadily forging ahead, with slower success than you, I, the management and the Board would like. But that's how it is. The technology is disruptive. Consider Kodak. Or FerroGlobe. Or carbon nanotube companies. What are they to do?? Meanwhile, our potential customers' executives have to be conservative - their jobs and careers are over should they make a big mistake. So we have to accept the pace - if we think we can do better, please let us explain how and where? I see many suggestions come forward on this forum, and I nod, and say "well, maybe, but I'm not in the room to hear all sides of that question'.
2. My second conclusion is that the SP as it is this morning, is massively under-rated; on paper it ought to be 3.5 cents now, unless you and I were completely off our rockers last week (sorry about that ageist slur, but I'm in the same hammock).
Meanwhile, DYOR. But I sleep comfortably at night, confident that AnteoTech will in due course bring home the bacon.
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