Good stuff, that reasoning would make the sandwich easier to swallow but I'm not ready to take a bite yet.
Now you've got me thinking too. In the first sentence of the
update (presumably important), they reaffirmed expectations for FY24 revenue. Although nobody believes it yet, I thought I'd attempt to get a better idea of what they might be seeing which would provide enough confidence for them to reaffirm guidance.
If
"we remain optimistic for the full year" and
"we believe that we will meet the lower end of our previously provided annual revenue guidance range of US$78.5 million to US$84.5 million", and we ass.u.me that around half of the 140 existing burn/trauma accounts and all of the 73 new trauma account held off ordering RECELL during Q1 in anticipation for RECELL GO being launched in Q2 (which JC couldn't say in the release for "
insert good reason(s) here"), and RECELL GO is approved, and PermeaDerm provides some meaningful revenue, and the rate of adoption increases; then I guess revenue could end up looking something like the scenario below:
Q2- 140 existing accounts resume orders with GO and increase revenue to $15M (6% growth on Q423)
- 25 of the 73 new accounts place initial orders in June at an average of 20 cassettes/account x $6500 = $3.25M
- Notes: I've split the initial orders for the 73 new accounts over 3 quarters. Thinking 2 quarters is possible too which would increase Q2/3 and reduce Q4 revenue totals, shown in grey in the table below.
- Total: $18.25M
Q3- 140 existing accounts increase adoption with GO and increase revenue to $16.5M (10% growth on mrq, 44% pcp)
- 24 of the 73 new accounts place initial orders in Q3 at an average of 20 cassettes/account x $6500 = $3.12M
- 24 of the 73 new accounts place replenishment orders in Q3 at an average of 10 cassettes/account x $6500 = $1.56M
- 8 of the 71 current submissions are approved and place orders in Q3 at an average of 20 cassettes/account x $6500 = $1.04M
- PermeaDerm ~ 2500 RECELL kits sold during Q3, all could be used with PD but say 250 cases with RECELL + 250 without RECELL @ $1000/case = $0.5M
- Total: $22.72M
Q4- 140 existing accounts increase adoption with GO and increase revenue to $18.2M (10% growth on mrq, 34% pcp)
- 24 of the 73 new accounts place initial orders in Q4 at an average of 20 cassettes/account x $6500 = $3.12M
- 48 of the 73 new accounts place replenishment orders in Q4 at an average of 10 cassettes/account x $6500 = $3.12M
- 8 more of the 71 current submissions are approved and place initial orders in Q3 at an average of 20 cassettes/account x $6500 = $1.04M
- 8 of the 71 current submissions place replenishment orders in Q4 at an average of 10 cassettes/account x $6500 = $0.52M
- PermeaDerm ~ 3000 RECELL kits sold during Q4, all could be used with PD but say 300 cases with RECELL + 300 without RECELL @ $1000/case = $0.6M
- Total: $26.6M
|
| Mar-24 | Jun-24 | Sep-24 | Dec-24 | FY24 |
|---|
| 1 | Revenue (USD) | $11.1M | $18.25M - $19.81M | $22.72M -$24.28M | $23.48M - $26.6M | $78.67M |
|---|
| 2 | Growth (mrq) | -21% | 64% | 24% | 17% |
|
|---|
| 3 | Growth (pcp) | 6% | 56% | 68% | 89% | 58% |
|---|
Even though the above scenario leaves little margin for error (including my allowances and calculations), achieving the low end of FY24 guidance doesn't seem as impossible as I had previously thought. Feel free to let me know if you can spot any miscalculations or have a better idea on input values.
We'll get another sniff in a month but it would be nice if it turns out to be a Nutella sandwich instead.
(20min delay)