Don't consider selling before profitability, page-367

Since the update that revenue for Q1 is expected to be 36% lower than previous guidance (at midpoints - $15.2M/$11.15M), the share price has dropped 36%.



It could be argued that this is a 32% overreaction since FY24 guidance is expected to be 4% lower than the midpoint of previous guidance ($81.5M/$78.5M).

However, in the absence of more reassuring explanations on the Q1 revenue downgrade and their confidence around FY24 revenue expectations, and an the increasing number of other misses - a proportion of investors are now doubting future guidance and questioning their investment, hence the rerate.

I hope it turns out that we were too harsh, especially on dismissing FY24 revenue guidance, but history is suggesting otherwise. Unfortunately, we have to wait around a month before we get a clearer picture.

I agree that the Avita team are best suited for the VAC process due to their product knowledge and motivation, and they will establish working relationships along the way. As I previously posted, the number of VAC approvals are ahead of my expectations. Investors and JC should know from burns, it can be a lengthy process, sometimes taking years to get approval. If people think it could be just a RECELL issue, keep in mind that PolyNovo's BTM has taken over 2 years to get VAC approved in some accounts too.