A1M 5.00% 33.3¢ aic mines limited

A1M: General Comments, page-469

  1. 124 Posts.
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    $ 25.7m in the bank 31 March.

    Various operational / weather failures during the quarter leading to crushing and shipment delays.
    $6.1m of stranded/delayed concentrate likely already sold. 500t of 'crushed copper' (33,000t pre crush) also probably already on its way. Its not clear how much of this 500t is standard at the end of a quarter, but i'm guessing half?
    There hasn't been any reference in quarterly reporting for the past two years about either of these 'excesses' so i'm assuming they are a first, but not unusual.

    My point being is if the 453t ($6.1m) had been shipped we would have had 3,500t for the quarter, and add to that perhaps half of the 500t still uncrushed = 3,750t for the quarter, and i'm not making this up, the numbers are pretty clear in the quarterly.

    So back to the $25.7m in the bank. Add $6.1m and call it $32m....and then possibly $2m more as a share of the uncrushed 500t from what is usual? $34m....and then the 2 cherries for this quarter re $$$$ ; prediction for last and current quarter the same re tonnage. In reality, from the above we really achieved 3,500t + this last quarter and that's not including the part of the 500t uncrushed. Hence i'm going for 3,500 + this quarter with no rain. That's 8m Lbs of copper, last quarter averaged sale price was $6.15 aud....its now $7.04 today. So thats an extra $7m this quarter via the Cu price.

    So end of quarter balance at current physical Cu price would be $34m + $7m -$1m (as they seem to go down $1m a quarter)...= $40m.

    Obviously the Cu price can change etc but i think $40m by the end of this quarter in the bank will give us plenty of funding options and possibilities. To me it doesn't sound like we will be mining Jericho, atm, until next year via Eloise / Swagman or via a box cut. That is possibly 4 quarters of $$$ away.
    By January, at current Cu prices its entirely plausible that we will have $55 - 65m in the bank. Then 2 years of development from there...ie more $$$ in the bank whilst paying for the plant and development.

    What's not to like about self funding...or MINIMAL external funding.

    Lastly i'm still slightly perplexed by the massive focus on Swagman after so few holes. They are clearly, if not hopefully, geologists. I am not!
    And related to this, absolutely no mention of Lens 6....but i'm guessing we will hear more via drill results shortly. If not i would be more troubled.

    Love this stock.
 
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