Ann: QPM to Focus on Gas and Energy Growth, page-85

Very rough maths - QPM announced they will target up to 35 TJ / day by end of 2024. Currently, Dyno and Glencore take 20.075 TJ / day. 15 TJ / day to TPS gives roughly 587,799 MW generated over the course of a year. This amount x 200 (conservative price IMO) gives a base case of $117.5m in rev, just from TPS. Another $40m or so in revenue from third party gas sales is $157.5m in rev. Costs are roughly $132m, EBITDA sitting at $25.5m per year. TPS at full capacity (744,545 MW/y) x $250/MWh (reasonable price estimate in 2 years time) $186m rev, maybe $30-40m EBITDA (inflationary costs factored in). this sum does not include gas sales to Dyno due to the new GSA that will kick in (QPM pays back debt funding via gas sales equivalent).

Placing a 5-10x P/E, it's very easy to see why the market likes the focus being on the gas play. TECH is the reason why most invested, it still has its merits and place in the future, but the attractiveness of QPME can't be ignored. By years end, I would price in a rerate to at least 8-9c. As previously mentioned, the management need to execute on gas supply growth and the investment will take care of itself.