I don't think we can say anything categorically on whether Israel was surprised by the Hamas attack. as you said they were warned by their own observers. and I'm not even sure that the lack of resistance to Hamas was not, shall we say, contrived? there remain too many unanswered questions to Oct 7.
but Netanyahu's protracted war, when all previous Israeli reactions to Hamas or other militia attacks have been over and done inside of 2 weeks, also raises many questions. those suspicions raised that I mentioned were via BBC and other global news services citing recognised analysts. unfortunately I can't back these up with refs. I did searches and couldn't track them down. so I accept any criticism or questioning of the validity.
