I am a long term holder in Opthea and here’s the story through my eyes.
Opthea announced outstanding Phase 2b trial results for OPT-302 in wet AMD in late 2019. This was a solid trial – a randomized, double-masked, sham-controlled clinical trial in 366 patients over 6 months of treatment.
In response, the share price rose to as high as ~ $4 (~A$635m market cap), up from ~ $0.65.
Opthea decided to advance OPT-302 through Phase 3 by itself.
Prior to commencing Phase 3 one year later, Opthea raised A$165m cash via a dual listing in the US. At the time, the Company projected Phase 3 trial results would be ready by H1 2023.
Following that raise, the share price had halved to ~A$2.
In August 2022, with its two Phase 3 trials still underway and cash reserves depleted, Opthea struck a financing deal with Launch Tx (Abingworth Carlyle) for up to A$260m along with a private placement for an extra A$128m.
The Launch Tx deal provided validation for Opthea’s OPT-302 clinical program. OPT was the first company chosen for financing by Launch Tx and the due diligence was exhaustive.
Deal details can be found here
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-form-6-k-with-sec.6893725/?post_id=63114958Twelve months later, Opthea conducted a further cap raise for A$74m.
Opthea has now accessed all available funding from the Launch Tx deal but, having already raised A$627m to fund Phase 3, still has insufficient funding to take OPT-302 through to registration.
The share price fell to as low as A$0.33 last October and is now ~ A$0.64, which is where it was prior to Phase 2 success.
The further financing/cap raise that will be required will take the share price down again and even if there is success in Phase 3, I’m not sure that the share price will exceed the ~A$4 it reached following Phase 2. If it does, OPT’s market cap will be A$2.6bn +. And Opthea will owe Abingworth A$1bn+.
In summary, even if Phase 3 success (results are now anticipated in mid- 2025) were to drive the OPT market cap of Opthea to 6x what it is now, the share price would simply be back to where it was in 2019, post-Phase 2.
While there are obviously many key differences between the two companies, hanging on to OPT shares following Phase 2 success certainly hasn’t been rewarding.
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