IEL Valuation, page-27

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JayWin

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27/04/24

02:02

Post #: 73533657
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Originally posted by euphoria: ↑

Sorry, must have missed this tag the other day.

Nothing fancy. But looking at EBITDA of 173M for a half or 346M for a full. Looking back to the lofty share price of $39, we were trading at a 31 multiple, which may have been justified if we were going to continue to grow at 50% annual rates. I am not sure how we got so far overvalued. Looking out with risks to immigration, I'm not applying much of a growth multiplier to IEL. For my comfort I want it about 12. (8.3% EBITDA yield, or about comparable to a risk free 6% in a mortgage offset). We are currently about 14.5 with a share price at $18.

This places it pretty well at about $15 a share, which looking at the technical side isn't unrealistic.

I understand IEL can grow Revenue by capturing increased market share, not solely on sector growth. Particularly when they do sneaky shit like this, that shows they grew 33%, while the Australian segment shrunk 17% in the last half, despite growing over calendar yr 23. Thats a large shock to the system in the last 6 months. Australia makes up over half their revenue and it shows growth in Canada, the UK, and the USA all down in the last 6 months. Market is correct to have caution.

For me, it's on a watchlist and ill check in time to time, but the sector itself needs to improve enough to justify a higher multiple, or IEL has to come down to be a bit more fairly priced. I'll also tack on, a stock being 'fairly priced' isnt always enough to get me excited. Particularly if the technicals look down right horrible and a high likelihood it becomes 'cheap'

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Great analysis, you’ve been vindicated

Now, $15-16 is about fair value. I’m guessing anything below $15’ks a buy.

IEL Price at posting: $15.92 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Add IEL (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $14.41		Change 0.500(3.59%)		Mkt cap ! $4.010B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$14.08	$14.41	$14.07	$8.511M	593.9K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1116	$14.34

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$14.42	2495	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1116	14.340
1	2495	14.300
3	10736	14.280
2	3130	14.270
1	2495	14.260

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.420	2495	1
14.440	2495	1
14.450	3201	3
14.460	8441	2
14.470	4263	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 29/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

IEL (ASX) Chart

IEL Valuation, page-27

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IEL Valuation, page-27

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