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23.5¢ strike energy limited

Ann: 3Q FY24 Quarterly Report & Appendix 5B, page-276

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Cherry7

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28/04/24

11:32

Post #: 73542592
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Originally posted by 618: ↑

I did some further updates today to my model, so thought I'd share it...

Given OH hasn't been successfully appraised yet, I have removed it as a potential future cashflow and added it as a prospect on a risked NAV basis. If it is successfully appraised and developed, it will add about 11cps to the valuation based on 50TJ/d production rate.

By adding the cashflow from SE standalone development back in, it has added 11cps to the valuation.

I've also replaced average spot price with average realiseable gas price. This drops to 6/GJ in 2027 when the CSBP contract kicks in and bring the overall average price down.

I've also reduced the COS risking for Arrino, Kadathinni and Booth down to 10% to be conservative, but kept ED and W7 at 50% given they are appraisal wells even if they are exploring new compartments within those fields.

Based on all that, we are at 40cps fair value.

Disclosure: I own a few STX shares. I am human and is prone to making human errors. This model contains forecasts which may or may not eventuate. This is for information sharing purpose only and not financial advice. Do your own research. Consult your financial planner if in doubt

618

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handy models,, all the way down from 50cps to 20cps... btw fair value looks like 20cps

STX Price at posting: 20.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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Last 23.5¢		Change 0.010(4.44%)		Mkt cap ! $673.3M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
22.5¢	23.5¢	21.5¢	$2.556M	11.39M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	13000	23.0¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
23.5¢	1913398	20

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7	1283620	0.225
14	1413679	0.220
17	1150912	0.215
25	1371187	0.210

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.235	1913398	20
0.240	1717691	25
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