I hold STX too so I offer as follows:-
STX has multiple permits which are at different stages of exploration so direct comparison
It has one in production, Walyering. Walyering as a stand alone is a good comparison to Moranbah.
Walyering is conventional not CSG so not a straight match
Walyering gas is sold at around $7.50 Gj, two contracts
Walyering currently produces around 24 Tj/day but the plant has a nameplate of 33 Tj/day
Gross revenue at 24 Tj/day sits at about $80M pa but productions costs are lower than Moranbah
It's 2P reserves are well below Moranbah, field life at peak is currently just 5 years.
It cost roughly just under $100M from first drill to first gas to market
They are going to spend another $10M on a single drill to hopefully add 30Pj to the 50Pj 2P
Macquarie currently have a conservative NPV of just under $200M for the production/sale of the Walyering 2P.
If the bottlenecks were removed, and the plant was derestricted and produced 33Tj/day, that $200M NPV will jump a bit higher than linear as WA uncontracted gas is now around $9.50/Gj
Export potential may open up.
Pros - Moranbah is producing too, has much larger 2P reserves, longer field life, has scope to lift production, has pipeline capacity at about the same level, and has the added potential to monetize via TPS at much higher $/Gj if more supply was available.
Cons - Production needs to lift, higher OPEX, NQGP is a closed market, disconnected from the high demand east coast market, export is not currently possible, needs GSA from third party(s) if TECH is stalled. If a third party GSA is done to deliver increased production, the rest of the cons don't matter. Oh, big con, Pie says it's a red herring.
SUMMARY
The plant and reserves for free, plus some cash, and the deal with Dyno compare extremely favourably to STX Walyering. QPME, upon increased production and a 3rd party GSA, will comfortably exceed the NPV of Walyering IMO. As always, not financial advice, DYOR.
Expand
