chil020,
If OBL finds substantial oil then the total number of options should be treated as FPO as they would be exercised.
That gives approx 397 million FPO (as per OBL's latest appendix 3B).
And as per OBL's quote....
"Previous Independent Expert Assessed Prospective Recoverable Resources"......for oil are:
Maximum = 337mmbbls
Most Likely = 270 mmbbls
Minimum = 141 mmbbls
OBL gets 60% times volume times NPV = you work it out.
It's a bit of a gestimate as they are not working on comprehensive 3D.
As you say:
"of course we would have to wait for data logging to establish the true size of the hit" and I would add to that 3D and step-out wells to get a true picture.
As it is we are still in the dark.
MI
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