ALK have 8 year LOM at Tomingley (without any further feed). 100kozpa at $1.5k margins at current POG you would think. Trading a little over 2x EBITDA. Cheap
Means you're getting Boda for free or negative carry costs at the moment IMO.
I am guessing Boda capex for 10Mtpa scenario would be circa $500-600m. I don't think that is impossible for a company the size of ALK MC and that also has a cashflow positive operation in Tomingley.
At current spot prices and average recovery grades for Boda/Kaiser OP I estimate that value per tonne of ore is currently c. A$50. If you assume costs at $30/t which I think on that scale might be doable, then we have $20/t margins. Ala $200m p.a. 3 year payback. Keeping in mind they have OP ore in indicated of 370Mt now or multi-decade LOM.
Don't get me wrong, it's a bull market asset (less so if they can find a higher grade starter pit somewhere - even 10-20% higher grade would probably do) but in my view it certainly has a non-zero value.
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15 | 157501 | 0.390 |
10 | 185130 | 0.385 |
15 | 203084 | 0.380 |
3 | 14250 | 0.375 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.400 | 12000 | 1 |
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