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LJ - a Jewel in the Crown, page-99

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Bowmo

97 Posts.

65

10/05/24

11:23

Post #: 73760361
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Originally posted by zebster ↑

Some 'interesting' and creative logic gymnastics going on there.

Here's a very simple truism that even the most noob of noobs should easily understand:
The ASX is a 'matched market', meaning there are equal volumes of purchases (buyers) and sales (sellers) for each and every transaction.

So... when you see the SP move down -- esp. SUB 1c (Put another way, "Of course there was large buying volume. It represented the other side of each and every sell order that traded. That's how it works!" (Shakes head.)

After all of these periodic large volume days over the past six months there still has not been a single F603 (new substantial holder notice) to emerge. Think about what any serious observer would make of that. Remember, the current 5% disclosure threshold is ~185m shares (currently 3,714m SOI). Sure, there might be a holder or two strategically sitting just below that mark, but it doesn't begin to fully explain the overwhelming unaccounted remaining cumulative volume that has already traded over the past almost two years which the 'accumulation' thesis constantly regurgitates.

The so-called Buying Wall that has presented itself from time to time has eventually been taken out at every point on the slide down from the mid-2022 spike-high.

Also worth noting is that as the SP goes lower and lower the volumes need to be higher and higher in order to maintain the same, or similar, dollar value traded. It's basic (inverse) linear math, not rocket science.
So, on a noteworthy day of much, much higher than usual traded volumes (i.e. 45.6m combined volume (ASX and C'boe)), in dollar terms it totaled the princely sum of... wait for it... only $271.5K (i.e. a VWAP today of 0.5955c).
That's a rounding error for any potential suitor who was supposedly somehow lining-up the company for a bid from the cover of under 5% over the past year or two. (Shakes head again.)

In short: There has been no Grand Stalking Whale soaking up the volume to account for anything over 185m shares (5%). If there had been it would have been disclosed yonks ago. Rather, the vast, vast majority of traded volume over the past two years is very simply explained as an ongoing game of Pass the Parcel Hand Grenade as it has become increasingly clear wrt the deterioration of the company's prospects over time.

This is what a slow-mo death spiral looks like.

Expand

So Zeb. It seems to me that one of the features of POS is that it has previously survived a nuclear winter.

I was wondering if you might know why they were once able to make a dollar go a long long way and you feel that that will not be the case in the future?

I do think that it will be cold for a time, but it will be shorter lived than previously.

POS Price at posting: 0.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 0.4¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $14.85M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.4¢	0.5¢	0.4¢	$44.42K	10.96M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
76	35438671	0.4¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.5¢	11634354	27

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
71	34883671	0.004
32	35502592	0.003
17	28050479	0.002
17	24100201	0.001
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.005	7856178	25
0.006	29754512	22
0.007	33355459	44
0.008	13578450	17
0.009	5088007	13

Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

POS (ASX) Chart

LJ - a Jewel in the Crown, page-99

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