ihg goose or golden egg

once fully diluted i.e oppies and convertable notes IHG will have just over 1.5 bilion shares on issue...what do u guys think of this.its a bit unsettling for me...having been over the rights information quite a few times i am still intrigued as to y the sophisticated investors r prepared to get into this.out of the 4 phases that the compnay has proposed to do it has achived 3 so far with the rights issue the last step.now that has been voted on..i suppose we will have to wait and see how many apply for them..not that it makes any differance as the rights r fully under written.

even tho the general reading suggest that the banks will be paying .05 that is only for ING bank for thier 25 odd million ABN AMRO will be getting approx. 120 million shares[undiluted] at an av. of about .038 but then again the banks will get security over the compnaies assets as well...while the creditors will be getting theirs at .05..not that they will hand over cash for them..but in lieu of some of the debt.

the sophisticate investors once the notes and oppies r converted will have paid $18,900,000 for their 651,000,000 shares which works out to an avg. of .029..they have also come to an agreement to buy ING's shares[.05 within 1st yr,.06 within 2yrs]...i have found out that a couple of the sophisticated investors have links to each other via directors..make of that what u will.

Sabatica pty ltd a sub. of GPG is curently the largest holder with 54 million approx. will end up with 215,000,000 shares approx. or about 18% of IHG...Utilico one of the other sophisticated investors will end up with approx. 212,000,000 16.9%...i assume that the remainder of the 651,000,000 will be spilt among the other 2 or 3 other sophisticated investors....then what is left is the 389,834,657 shares that will made avaiable to the public...... this is the break down of what i jsut said

existing shares 278,264,657 @ currant market price .036 31 /12 /04
banks-
ING 25,660,000 @ .05 $ 1,283,000

ABN AMRO 52,340,000 @ .05 $ 2,617,000
68,000,000 @ .025 $ 1,700,000 these r from the rights issue and r garrantted

creditors 75,000,000 @ .05 $ 3,750,000

sophisticated invst.-
240,000,000 @ .03125 $7,500,000 convertible notes
336,000,000 @ .025 $8,400,000 rights issue from convertible notes
60,000,000 @ .04 $2,400,000 to convert oppies by 2009
15,000,000 @ .04 $600,000 to convert oppies by 2009
AVG. OF ABOVE 4 LINES IS .029 cents

new shares
to currant holders 389,570,000 @ .025 $9,739,250 from rights issue
-----------------
1,539,834,657 FULLY DILUTED


as far as i am aware none of the top20 share holders have bailed apart from the notice on the 25 /11 /04 and then that holder only bailed approx. 7 million of the 18million odd that they hold so currantly their position on the rankings stays the same...we should also note that the top20 shareholders arent just anybodies they include subsiduries of citi corp, westpac,NAB,ANZ and sabatica pty ltd[a GPG sub.]
currantly of the 278,264,657 that r on issue the top 20 holders hold 190,460,356 leaving under 100,000,000 to be readily traded..[and i'm not saying that the top 20 holders dont trade any of their stock].since the rights issue was announced we have seen approx. 20 to 30 million traded...what this means i'm not sure,could it be mugs panicing and bailing or someone trying to get the price down in order to get their average down...i cant see it being any of the sophisticated investors as they r gurrantted their share of the lot,so maybe it is panic selling and spec. buying?

in regards to the recent trading over the last mnth or so we have seen the price drop to a low of .027 and then go as high as .047 in the last week of dec...we know that the record date is the 6 /01 /05,so until the 6th people will be trying to get the price down as low as possible in order to get the rights @.025 + share price paid as low as they can...after the 6th the only way to get the rights is thru buying IHGR up until the 17th of jan.now depending on how badly the general public wants to get the rights we will see what they r willing to pay...for e.g if the rights trade for an avg. of .02 then the holders will be paying .02 + .025[rights price] in order to get into IHG....now unless we see heavy volume selling in either IHG or IHGR after the 6th we could safely say that the sophisticated investors would still be in[as we know they hold the majority of the rights]....sorry just remembered that the banks and the sophisticated investors have thier shares in escrow for at least 6mnths

having said all of the above and seeing the compnay has achived it's set tasks to date in regards to the restructuring i dare say that it will all be pointless unless they can achive the revenues that r required to keep the company a going concern,which brings me to the point as to why the big boys r going anywhere near this compnay.i can only assume that they have crunched thier numbers alot better than i or any other mug have.after all these r large investment firms that we are talking about who r about to take a large % stake in IHG...maybe they can see the potentail..the question now is,can we?

we got in at .031 for the first time early last week for a couple of hundred thousand shares more on pot luck than anything else....and if we take up the rights our avg. will be .027 so for know i can live comfortably with that position...and as the market is forever a changing place so to will be or view and position.

and please something a bit more constructive than..."the price is going down"