Of course that's possible, but dilution is still dilution and it's largely irrelevant who owns those additional 15-25% shares on issue. All that really matters is the intended use of the funds, and whether it builds shareholder value. The upper limit is 25% or 350m shares, and if that occurs at a 20% discount from the current price (10 cents discounted rate), it would only generate A$35m, which falls far short of the reported 10 ktpa expansion budget of US$250m or A$380m.
It seems far more plausible that the forthcoming cap raise will primarily address the operational challenges of the 2 ktpa plant and may include some pre-works spending for the 10 ktpa expansion. However, this still leaves a significant expansion funding gap of over 90%, requiring around A$350m, double AGY's current market cap.
To my knowledge, no lithium developer/producer has ever secured a debt deal or pre-paid offtake equivalent to twice their market cap.
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