Ann: Update on the Northern Territory Gas Market and Mereenie EOI, page-9

To clarify I'm confident they can reach 40. I'm just questioning if it will be as easy to keep it at 40 for 6 years as they think. The field is declining fairly steadily, without new drilling it would be around 10-15 TJ/d by 2030 IMO. So to add potentially 30 TJ new production by 2030, with any new wells you drill also declining, is quite a bit of capex. If the wells don't perform to expectations you'll struggle to deliver the contracted volume at the back end of the GSA.

I do think given the gas outlook with the NGP looking like spending a long time not operating it is worth the risk. They are earning something like $8 now which is a massive increase over the $6ish when you look at operating cashflow, and even moreso when you don't have to pay the ridiculous tolls on the NGP on top of your opex.