General Thoughts, page-3951

While we wait for news or leads from WDS post-summit, I attach some interesting speculation from our Canadian stock forum counterparts over at Sintana:CEO. I have highlighted the snippet which applies to us;

@stocksluice @drezinho, that is very interesting information! Exxon wants into the Orange basin badly, and have strongly indicated as much. They have two main shots, farm into PEL83 with Galp, or PEL87 with Woodside and Pancontinental. With this revelation, there is little doubt in my mind that Exxon will prioritize farming in with Galp, and likely much sooner rather than later. Mopane has much more oil than Total and Shell have found combined in their PELs to the south, and in shallower water. Swinging a deal with Galp would put Exxon in the driver's seat and on a fast track regarding production and development (which is exactly what Galp is looking for). There must be a lot of benefits calling the shots regarding infrastructure. Based on that rationale, I'm expecting an announcement, likely sooner rather than later.

@stocksluice Moreover, if I'm at all on the right track with this (and I may not be), Exxon might offer Custos (hence Sintana) the same deal they offer Galp. Allow me to >>speculate<< further: Exxon takes a 50% interest (5/8ths of Galp's 80%) in PEL83 for cash (and perhaps with a commitment to develop Mopane within a certain timeframe, thereby placating Namcor as well). They make, proportionally, the same offer to Custos for, say, >>up to<< an additional 10% interest in PEL83. I can't see Custos selling all of it's 10% interest, but it might sell some, any of which would leave Exxon with over 50% controlling interest in PEL83.

@stocksluice If (when?) such a scenario were to unfold, the main benefit for us shareholders in Sintana would be to have an immediate dollar amount valuation for our stake in PEL83.

@drezinho @stocksluice Interesting possibilities! Galp has spoken about farming out half of its 80%, but Exxon may push for a higher percentage. I'd personally like Custos to stay in the play as it unfolds, or maybe convert to a gross royalty.
Another possibility is Exxon ALSO tries to muscle in alongside Woodside or buy out Woodside's interest outright to gain control over two contiguous blocks and become THE dominant player in the OB.
Woodside has been hemming and hawing about its decarbonization plans and definitely doesn't want to retain operatorship.
Galp's PEL is de-risked but more expensive. Woodside's is highly prospective but untested.
Who knows?
But, Exxon does have $33 billion of cash on hand.