I am bullish as well on graphite - I don't hold the one you hold btw, but hold another (potential Oz producer). My point was that I suspect you invested in SYA for FA, but when SYA price fell I suspect you didn't sell. Yet, you are here providing advice to long term LTR shareholders who didn't sell late last year. I will leave it at that.
There is no deteriorating outlook on lithium. You are mis-construing China's ability to control/influence short term prices because of its dominant position. We saw that when it tried to use its crap lepidolite resources to reduce prices with the repercussions of that.
Government's world-wide have woken up to that and now are seeking to get greater control of critical minerals and downstream processing into their own countries.
Here is a question - why was PLS/IGO getting higher spodumene prices than the reported published China price index for spodumene? Quality matters and a China index is just that - China who seek to control prices. More info here -
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Below I will just re-duplicate my response to you from a month ago since I can be a 'magpie' as well when you posted a contradictory article and then from there yabbered the same things you are still posting on here: -
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The sky isn't falling, but my VB needs a refill.
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I am not sure why you don't post in PLS (why here?). The most important line in the article you posted is the following:
"
China’s EV industry is only going to go from strength to strength as a whole, but not every player today will see the finish line,” said Mark Rainford, an automotive industry commentator based in Shanghai who hosts the YouTube channel “Inside China Auto.”
What it means is pretty simple - the industry is growing and will grow. However because the industry in China is no longer in its infancy stages, it will now consolidate meaning some car companies will die and others will be merged - but EV demand is growing. It is how capitalism works (even in communist China LOL). I also would be expecting car companies overseas actually developing increased EV capability as well - in Europe and USA - to be more away from been held hostage by China.
I would also be expecting more greater vertical intergration - EV producers having greater stakes in lithium mines and chemical convertion processes etc
For others below I will just put down my previous research, which can apply more widely to the lithium industry per se and not just LTR.
Demand and not all spodumene is the same:
Explained inPost #:
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Breaking China's dominance -
Graph belowexplained inPost #:
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: Point - countries are seeing their own viewpoints on making sure you have access to minerals and your own EV capability in own country.
This is what I think is the next step - improving battery efficiency:
Improving battery efficiency in terms of inputs per kWh, would mean the costs of EVs would further reduce, and more importantly take up of EVs would further increase meaning demand for EVs would further increase beyond current forecasts (which are largely built largely on 0.9 kg LCE per kWh). Or another way to put it, despite EVs needing less lithium (and other materials per kWh) at some point in time, the increase in EV demand more than compensates for the fall in LCE need in EVs. A bit like what you saw with takeup of say computers and typical technology change overtime - they become cheaper and functions improve, but demand accelerates.
With demand projected to grow strongly for EVs as forecast now, any acceleration of that can only be good for lithium producers like LTR who will be getting to market early is my point - those getting in early reap the benefits of current prices and reap the benefits of accelerating demand as EVs become cheaper as well - improving battery efficiency also means input prices don't have to fall drastically to accelerate demand is my point because of the demand growth itself and cost of vehicles coming down as material inputs in EV batteries reduce.
For those wanting to understand where the 0.371kg LCE per kWh comes from it is in this post - calcs half way down
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It is a relatively technical post for those interested.
(20min delay)