I totally agree.!!! I am a little confused though. Is this not very bad news for Lynas until China changes it's course? How can you believe what you said and not have a Sell sentiment? So I agree with your China assessments, can you explain why you still say "buy" so i can understand. China has 90% of WW production should we not include what they want when thinking of buying and selling Lynas? What do you see in pricing or production volume that will let Lynas sell for AUD 6.00 with a Pe of 30. For this to happen Lynas needs EPS of AUD 0.20 which is a profit of $187M / Yr. they made $39M in SAR so times 2 = 78M. So taking Your statement I do not expect REE prices to rise very soon. Taking AL's statement in Q3 CC about cutting back production at these REE prices, I see little chance of Lynas making 100M /yr in FY 2024, which is way short of $187M. Pls show me what I am missing?
also a PE of 30 is unheard of for a company with 2 years of decreasing earnings.
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