I suspect it will hover around 90, but you just never know. It's one of the joys of life (and maybe the markets) that nobody is that good at future-gazing; everyone sometimes gets it wrong.
On another note, I've been back and forth with the company on the sapphire side of things.
Very ruff numbers it’s about 1 for 1 hpa to sapphire glass. 1 sapphire unit will produce 4 tonnes of gross glass and ruffly 3 tonnes of net glass (wastage on edges / outside, this becomes crackle) per year. 1 unit will use just under 4 tonnes hpa per year ruffly. 100 units is around 350 tonnes, still working through the exact numbers as amount of HPA and crackle blend to produce best glass. For our first 50 units, stage 1 with supply bank building will be sufficient to feed the 50 units until stage 2 is going.
Very cool that the crackle gets recycled back into the process to reduce waste - I didn't know that.
Looking at it more broadly, there is a lot of upside potential here.
- if the sapphire thing takes off, then big margins
- no other producer has the range of HPA variants
- They are the only global producer of the Al nitrate product, and if that takes off, and as stated in the recent DFS, that could significantly expand the production tonnage of the phase 2 plant with their highest margin product.
- a 4-year marketing head start on all the hopefuls, they've done so much work here.
- they could be forced into a second plant if they land even 70% of what is currently in the pipeline, let alone any news business they are likely to pick up in the future. Dare we dream of a HPA Third!
- plus whatever else they have planned they haven't told us about yet!
I'm looking forward to the next few years—they'll fly by, and production will be here before we know it.
DYOR - IMO - Good luck all
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